OPEC+ expected to boost oil output again, sources say

Eight key OPEC+ countries are set to boost oil production further from November, ahead of a pivotal meeting this Sunday where the group will decide on its next steps. A central point of contention remains the scale of this increase, with Saudi Arabia reportedly pushing for a more substantial rise to reclaim market share, while Russia advocates for a more modest adjustment.

This anticipated policy shift follows years of production cuts and reflects a broader strategy by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with Russia and other allies, to regain market share from rivals such as U.S. shale producers. So far this year, the group has already increased its oil output targets by over 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd), representing approximately 2.5% of global demand. While the two largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, have frequently differed on output levels, they have historically managed to forge compromise agreements.

Sources close to the discussions indicate that Moscow would prefer the group to raise output by 137,000 bpd starting in November, matching the October increase. This cautious approach is driven by a desire to avoid putting downward pressure on oil prices and by Russia's own challenges in significantly boosting production due to Western sanctions imposed over its war in Ukraine.

Ahead of Sunday's online meeting, scheduled for 1100 GMT, an "agreement in principle" has reportedly been reached for this 137,000 bpd increment. However, other, more ambitious options are also on the table, including increases of 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd, or even 548,000 bpd, according to various reports.

The ongoing process of increasing output marks a significant departure from previous policies. At their peak in March, OPEC+ production cuts totaled a substantial 5.85 million bpd, comprising voluntary reductions and phased cuts implemented by both the eight members and the broader group. The 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts are slated to be fully unwound by the end of September, while the removal of the second layer of 1.65 million bpd began in October with the initial 137,000 bpd increase.